This “4% rule” is a guideline developed in the mid-1990s on how much a retiree can withdraw from their accounts without running out of money.

2024 was another wonderful year for the stock market. In fact, the last two years were the best two consecutive years in a quarter century. An economy fueled by record corporate earnings, strong job creation and robust consumer spending led to better-than-expected returns for stocks once again.

The S&P 500 has a case of bad breadth as a few mega cap stocks dominated versus the average stock…

Wow, where has the year gone? We are 30 days away from the election and going through our year end checklists.

In my last strategy piece, I warned people about the extreme momentum in Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI). People buying in March 2024 due to “fear of missing out” (FOMO) have a low probability of having a successful investment.

As we navigate through volatile markets and evolving economic conditions as well as geopolitical events, understanding the benefits of portfolio diversification can make a significant difference in achieving your financial goals.

Cash has had a great run, but the juicy yields we’ve gotten used to on everything from CDs to money market funds won’t stick around much longer. Whether they cut rates in September or early next year we believe cuts are coming relatively soon.

Last October, investors were selling at the lows and piling into US Treasury bills. While they were earning 5% safely on their money, the stock market quietly surprised everyone by rising more than +25% over that same period.

Momentum trading is the opposite of "buy low and sell high"; momentum traders "buy high and sell higher" (hopefully). I have in the past sounded the alarm when momentum stocks/momentum investing have become the primary driver of the stock market with prior writings such as "Nachos Para Machos" and I do so again.

The stock market and economy continue to show greater strength than predicted. Back in late August of 23, John Lui our CIO wrote “As the US economy, corporate profits and inflation trends improve, the S&P 500 will continue to rise, which will force the sell siders to move to the middle of the boat (neutral) or right side of the boat (bullish) and again revising upward their S&P 500 target prices”. John’s call was very prescient as the market has risen spectacularly since early October and now the sell siders have moved to the middle and right side of the boat. In fact, this morning (April 1 – both Goldman Sachs and HSBC have raised their price targets for the S&P 500 again) (Bloomberg).

A recession has not occurred as our economy is just not that interest rate sensitive coming out of the pandemic…

How quickly things change! As I write this update, we are within a hair of the all-time highs for the S&P 500.

Earnings have bottomed while inflation/interest rates have peaked: The bullish case for the stock market …

After experiencing an extended ultra-low interest rate environment from the 2008 Financial crisis through early last year, interest rates have now moved significantly higher. Here's something to consider..

Sell side strategists in the media don’t manage money like the buy siders; the sell sider’s main role is to increase trading and investment banking revenues for their respective brokerage firms and not to help you invest for retirement.

The economy continues to perform as we have predicted.

Dan Moskowitz offers his review and outlook as of July 2023

Buying High yield savings, T-bills, and CD’s will help!

The stock market and investors always look forward and they like what they see…

Let’s Not Lose Sight of the Big Picture. These days we are barraged daily with information, and it seems to be easier than ever to lose track of the big picture..